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The Reform UK leader depicts his Reform UK party as a unique phenomenon that has exploded on to the world stage, its rapid ascent an exceptional historic moment. However this week, in every one of Europe’s major countries and from the Indian subcontinent and Thailand to the US and South America, far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties similar to his are also leading in the public surveys.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the rightwing, pro-Putin populist a prominent figure overthrew the head of government Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just brought down yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the French presidency and parliament. In the German nation, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the leading party. A Hungarian political force, Robert Fico’s pro-Russian Slovakian coalition and the Italian political group are already in power, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Dutch PVV and Belgian Vlaams Belang – all staunch nationalist groups – are part of an global alliance of anti-internationalists, inspired by right-wing influencers like Steve Bannon, seeking to overthrow the international rule of law, weaken fundamental freedoms and destroy international collaboration.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

The populist nationalist surge exposes a new and unavoidable truth that supporters of democracy ignore at great risk: an authoritarian ethnic nationalism – once thought toppled with the Berlin Wall – has replaced neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of firsts: “America first”, “India first”, “China first”, “Russia first”, “group priority” and often “my tribe first and only” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of many autocratic states and fewer democratic ones, and this ideology is the driver behind the violations of international human rights law not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every instance of global strife.

Root Causes Explained

Crucial to grasp the root causes, widespread globally, that have driven this recent nationalist era. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalisation that was accessible yet exclusionary has been a free for all that has been unjust to all.

For more than a decade, political figures have not only been slow to respond to the many people who feel left out and marginalized, but also to the shifting dynamics of world economic influence, moving us from a US-dominated era once dominated by the United States to a multipolar world of competing superpowers, and from a system of international law to a power-based one. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means open commerce is being replaced by trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive politics, the nationalist agendas is now driving financial choices, and already over a hundred nations are running protectionist strategies characterized by bringing production home and ally-focused trade and by bans on international commerce, foreign funding and technology transfer, lowering international cooperation to its lowest ebb since the post-war period.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

But all is not lost. The situation is not fixed, and even as it solidifies we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the global public. In a poll conducted for a major foundation, of 36,000 people in dozens of nations we find a clear majority are more resistant to an exclusionary nationalism and more inclined to embrace international cooperation than many of the officials who rule over them.

Globally there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a limited number of hardened anti-internationalists representing a minority of the world's people (even if 25% in the United States currently) who either feel coexistence between ethnic and religious groups is unattainable or have a zero-sum mindset that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the expense of others doing badly.

But there are an additional group at the opposite extreme, whom we might call dedicated globalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through open trade as a positive sum win-win, or are what an influential thinker calls “locally engaged global citizens”.

Worldwide Public Position

Most people of the global public are moderate in views: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “America first” ideology would suggest, or fully global citizens. They are patriotic but don’t see the world as in a never-ending struggle between the “our side” and the “others”, opponents always divided from each other in an unbridgeable divide.

Do the majority in the middle prefer a duty-free or a dutiful world? Are they prepared to accept obligations beyond their garden gate or city wall? Affirmative, under certain conditions. A first group, 22%, will support aid efforts to alleviate hardship and are prepared to act out of altruism, supporting disaster relief for disaster zones. Those we might call “charitable” cooperation advocates empathize of others and believe in something bigger than themselves.

A second group comprising a similar percentage are practical cooperators who want to know that any public funds for international development are spent well. And there is a third group, 21%, personally motivated collaborators, who will endorse cooperation if they can see that it advantages them and their communities, whether it be through ensuring them food on the table or peace and security.

Building a Cooperative Majority

Thus a clear majority can be built not just for humanitarian aid if funds are used wisely but also for global action to deal with global problems, like environmental emergency and disease control, as long as this case is argued on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we stress the reciprocal benefits that flow to them and their own country. And thus for those who have long questioned whether we cooperate out of need or if we have a necessity for collaboration, the answer is both.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can reverse the xenophobic tide: we can overcome today’s negative, isolated and often forceful and controlling nationalism that vilifies immigrants, outsiders and “different groups” as long as we advocate for a optimistic, outward-looking and inclusive national pride that responds to people’s desire to belong and connects to their immediate concerns.

Tackling Key Issues

And while in-depth polls tell us that across the west, illegal immigration is currently the biggest national issue – and it's clear that it must quickly be managed effectively – the public sentiment data also tell us that the people are even more concerned about what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their own local communities. Last month, the UK Prime Minister spoke movingly about how what’s good about Britain can overcome what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “broken” and “in decline” are the words people have for years most commonly cited when asked about both our financial system and society.

However, as the prime minister also reminded us, the extreme right is more interested in using complaints than resolving issues. A Reform leader praised a ill-fated economic plan as “an excellent fiscal policy” since the 1980s. But he would also enact a similar plan – what was intended – the largest reductions in public services. The party's proposal to reduce public spending by a huge sum would not repair struggling areas but ravage them, create social division and destroy any spirit of solidarity. Under a hard-right regime, you will not be able to afford to be sick, impaired, poor or at-risk. Every day from now on, and in every electoral district, the party should be asked which hospital, which educational institution and which government service will be the first to be reduced or closed.

The Stakes and the Alternative

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most cruel, more harmful even than monetarism, and spiteful far beyond austerity. What the people are telling us all over the Western world is that they want their governments to rebuild our financial systems and our communities. “Reform” and its global allies should be revealed day after day for plans that would harm both. And for those of us who believe our best days could be ahead of us, we can go beyond pointing out the party's contradictions by setting out a case for a improved nation that resonates not just to visionaries, but to realists, to self-interest, and to the everyday compassion of the nation's citizens.